High-Frequency News Candle Paradox?

Is entering on a 1-minute NFP news breakout mathematically guaranteed to lose money over 100 trades?

When CPI or NFP drops, the first 1-minute candle usually moves 40 pips in 2 seconds. If your spread expands from 0.8 pips to 12 pips and slippage fills your market order 15 pips late, you are buying at the absolute tip of the spike. Are news breakout traders just funding the dealing desk's order book?