George Soros and Black Wednesday

George Soros and Black Wednesday: When does conviction become overconfidence?

George Soros's famous bet against the British pound is a powerful example of macroeconomic analysis, market positioning, and conviction.

But there is an important distinction between having a strong thesis and risking too much because you believe it must be correct.

Discussion: How should a trader handle a high-conviction setup when the potential reward looks unusually attractive? Should position size remain limited by a fixed risk framework, even when the analysis appears exceptionally strong?

Can a trader be right about market direction and still lose because the position is too large or the timing is wrong?