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The role of luck in trading results: how big is it?

Alex Alexander

Short-term performance is heavily influenced by randomness, which is why a few good months mean little. How do you separate luck from skill? Share how long you track results before trusting your own edge.

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  • John Chibuzor

    I separate luck from skill by tracking at least 100 trades using the same strategy and reviewing my win rate, risk-to-reward ratio, drawdown, and overall results in R-multiples. I also backtest and forward-test my setup to see if the edge holds up across different market conditions. A few profitable months aren't enough to prove consistency. For me, skill is showing up through disciplined execution and repeatable results over a large sample size, not just making money in the short term. 💯

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