What is more dangerous: overfitting or curve fitting?
They are closely related. Both can make a strategy look excellent historically but fail in live markets.
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A strong backtest does not guarantee live performance. Real market conditions always bring additional challenges.
Overfitting can create false confidence because a strategy may be designed around past market behavior.
I believe forward testing is essential to determine whether a strategy can perform under changing market conditions.
The real test is whether a strategy remains consistent when market conditions are different from those in the backtest.
A simple and robust trading system is often more valuable than a perfect-looking historical performance report.
